Tesla price analysis & prediction
Service-level projections for TSLA with a spreadsheet audit trail and interactive 10-year charts. Switch scenarios, toggle segments, and inspect every year.
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NASDAQ · TSLA
Tesla — price analysis & 10-year prediction
Scenario model that projects volume, revenue, profit, margin, and growth by service (vehicle, robotaxi, solar, megapack, semi, optimus), rolls them into a company path, and draws an illustrative share-price trail. Spreadsheet tables expose every assumption and intermediate year.
Base year 2025 · default horizon 10 years · not investment advice
Scenario
Services in model
Consolidated revenue ($M) — solid = base year actual-model; dashed zone = forward projection. Hover to inspect.
Assumptions sheet
| Service | Base year | Base volume | Base ASP | Base margin | Vol growth (Y1→Y10) | Scenario mult (B/Base/Bull) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle | 2025 | 1.64M units | $45,000 | 12.0% | 8.0% → 12.0% | 0.5/1/1.4 |
| Robotaxi | 2025 | 5 paid rides (M) | $8 | -15.0% | 150.0% → 20.0% | 0.4/1/1.6 |
| Solar | 2025 | 250 MW deployed | $2,500,000 | 10.0% | 15.0% → 10.0% | 0.6/1/1.3 |
| Megapack | 2025 | 46.7 GWh deployed | $250,000,000 | 22.0% | 35.0% → 12.0% | 0.55/1/1.35 |
| Semi truck | 2025 | 500 units | $250,000 | -5.0% | 200.0% → 25.0% | 0.35/1/1.5 |
| Optimus | 2025 | 200 robots | $30,000 | -50.0% | 300.0% → 35.0% | 0.25/1/1.8 |
Vehicle — yearly model
| Metric | 2025 | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2030* | 2031* | 2032* | 2033* | 2034* | 2035* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (units) | 1.64M | 1.77M | 1.92M | 2.09M | 2.28M | 2.50M | 2.76M | 3.05M | 3.39M | 3.79M | 4.24M |
| Revenue ($M) | 73.63B | 77.93B | 83.10B | 89.28B | 96.63B | 105.38B | 115.76B | 128.11B | 142.82B | 160.38B | 181.42B |
| Profit ($M) | 8.84B | 9.74B | 10.78B | 11.99B | 13.40B | 15.05B | 16.98B | 19.26B | 21.96B | 25.18B | 29.03B |
| Margin | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 15.7% | 16.0% |
| Growth rate (rev YoY) | — | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 13.1% |
Assumptions & sources — Vehicle
- Base volume ≈ 2025 quarterly delivery sum from Tesla IR operational summaries.
- ASP ~$45k blended (illustrative; actual mix/FSD/credits differ).
- Volume CAGR steps from 8% → 12% over 10 years in base case (new models + affordability).
- ASP mildly compresses then stabilizes; margin expands slowly with scale.
Sources: Tesla IR production & delivery releases / Operational Summary; Tesla quarterly Financial Summary (automotive revenues context)
Robotaxi — yearly model
| Metric | 2025 | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2030* | 2031* | 2032* | 2033* | 2034* | 2035* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (paid rides (M)) | 5 | 12.5 | 27.5 | 52.3 | 88.8 | 137.7 | 199.6 | 269.5 | 350.4 | 437.9 | 525.5 |
| Revenue ($M) | 40 | 102 | 228.9 | 443.6 | 769.2 | 1.22B | 1.80B | 2.48B | 3.28B | 4.19B | 5.13B |
| Profit ($M) | -6 | -7.1 | -2.3 | 17.7 | 61.5 | 133.8 | 242.8 | 383.9 | 558.3 | 753.7 | 973.8 |
| Margin | -15.0% | -7.0% | -1.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| Growth rate (rev YoY) | — | 155.0% | 124.4% | 93.8% | 73.4% | 58.1% | 47.9% | 37.7% | 32.6% | 27.5% | 22.4% |
Assumptions & sources — Robotaxi
- Base year treats Robotaxi as early commercial (few metros) — not GAAP-grade ride counts.
- Volume is millions of paid rides; ASP ~$8 net take rate style (illustrative).
- Growth front-loaded as markets open; margins swing from loss to high-teens/40%+ if utilization works.
- Q2’26 IR: Robotaxi live in multiple U.S. metros; Cybercab production beginning — used only as narrative anchor.
Sources: Tesla IR Q2 2026 Update (Robotaxi metros / Cybercab production commentary); Tesla Master Plan / We, Robot event narrative (qualitative only)
Solar — yearly model
| Metric | 2025 | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2030* | 2031* | 2032* | 2033* | 2034* | 2035* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (MW deployed) | 250 | 287.5 | 329 | 374.7 | 424.7 | 479 | 537.5 | 600.2 | 666.9 | 737.3 | 811 |
| Revenue ($M) | 625 | 711.6 | 806.2 | 909 | 1.02B | 1.14B | 1.27B | 1.40B | 1.54B | 1.68B | 1.83B |
| Profit ($M) | 62.5 | 74.7 | 88.7 | 104.5 | 122.4 | 142.3 | 164.5 | 188.8 | 215.4 | 244.2 | 275 |
| Margin | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 15.0% |
| Growth rate (rev YoY) | — | 13.9% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% |
Assumptions & sources — Solar
- Tesla discloses solar more sparsely than storage; base MW is model estimate.
- ASP ~$2.5M/MW installed-equivalent (illustrative system ASP).
- Growth moderate; margin gradual expansion with scale.
Sources: Tesla IR Energy generation and storage commentary; Tesla 10-K energy segment narrative
Megapack — yearly model
| Metric | 2025 | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2030* | 2031* | 2032* | 2033* | 2034* | 2035* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (GWh deployed) | 46.7 | 63 | 83.5 | 108.5 | 138.1 | 172.3 | 210.6 | 252 | 295.2 | 338.1 | 378.7 |
| Revenue ($M) | 11.68B | 15.29B | 19.69B | 24.92B | 30.99B | 37.85B | 45.39B | 53.41B | 61.64B | 69.75B | 77.34B |
| Profit ($M) | 2.57B | 3.52B | 4.71B | 6.19B | 7.95B | 10.01B | 12.33B | 14.86B | 17.53B | 20.23B | 22.82B |
| Margin | 22.0% | 23.0% | 23.9% | 24.8% | 25.7% | 26.4% | 27.2% | 27.8% | 28.4% | 29.0% | 29.5% |
| Growth rate (rev YoY) | — | 31.0% | 28.8% | 26.6% | 24.4% | 22.1% | 19.9% | 17.7% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 10.9% |
Assumptions & sources — Megapack
- Base GWh ≈ sum of 2025 quarterly storage deployed from Tesla IR Operational Summary.
- ASP ~$250/kWh deployed revenue proxy (illustrative; mix Powerwall/Megapack).
- Volume growth high early (Megafactory ramp) then normalizes; margins already healthy.
Sources: Tesla IR Operational Summary — storage deployed (GWh); Tesla IR Energy generation and storage revenue line (context)
Semi truck — yearly model
| Metric | 2025 | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2030* | 2031* | 2032* | 2033* | 2034* | 2035* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (units) | 500 | 1.5k | 3.8k | 7.5k | 13.5k | 21.6k | 32.4k | 45.4k | 61.2k | 79.6k | 99.5k |
| Revenue ($M) | 125 | 371.3 | 918.8 | 1.82B | 3.24B | 5.14B | 7.63B | 10.57B | 14.13B | 18.18B | 22.50B |
| Profit ($M) | -6.3 | -3.7 | 18.4 | 91 | 243.2 | 487.9 | 838.9 | 1.27B | 1.84B | 2.51B | 3.22B |
| Margin | -5.0% | -1.0% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 14.3% |
| Growth rate (rev YoY) | — | 197.0% | 147.5% | 98.0% | 78.2% | 58.4% | 48.5% | 38.6% | 33.7% | 28.7% | 23.7% |
Assumptions & sources — Semi truck
- Base volume is a model pilot-scale assumption — Tesla has not published a full Semi run-rate series.
- ASP ~$250k per truck; margins negative early, expand with factory utilization.
- Q2’26 IR narrative: Semi on track for production at Nevada factory — qualitative anchor only.
Sources: Tesla IR updates (Semi factory / production timeline commentary); Tesla Semi product page (qualitative)
Optimus — yearly model
| Metric | 2025 | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2030* | 2031* | 2032* | 2033* | 2034* | 2035* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (robots) | 200 | 800 | 2.8k | 8.4k | 21.0k | 46.2k | 87.8k | 149.2k | 231.3k | 335.4k | 452.8k |
| Revenue ($M) | 6 | 22.8 | 76.1 | 218.3 | 524 | 1.11B | 2.04B | 3.36B | 5.07B | 7.19B | 9.51B |
| Profit ($M) | -3 | -8.7 | -21.3 | -43.7 | -68.1 | -77.7 | -40.8 | 67.3 | 253.7 | 539 | 903.2 |
| Margin | -50.0% | -38.0% | -28.0% | -20.0% | -13.0% | -7.0% | -2.0% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
| Growth rate (rev YoY) | — | 280.0% | 233.7% | 187.0% | 140.0% | 111.9% | 83.7% | 64.9% | 50.9% | 41.6% | 32.3% |
Assumptions & sources — Optimus
- Optimus has no meaningful public GAAP revenue series; entire path is scenario modeling.
- Base units low (lab/limited production); ASP ~$30k declining with scale.
- Margins deeply negative early; bull case assumes manufacturing learning curves similar to vehicles.
- Q2’26 IR: Fremont Optimus construction / anticipated production — qualitative only.
Sources: Tesla IR / shareholder updates (Optimus production commentary); Tesla AI Day / We, Robot qualitative materials
Consolidated roll-up (selected services)
| Metric | 2025 | 2026* | 2027* | 2028* | 2029* | 2030* | 2031* | 2032* | 2033* | 2034* | 2035* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 86.10B | 94.42B | 104.81B | 117.58B | 133.18B | 151.82B | 173.87B | 199.32B | 228.48B | 261.37B | 297.73B |
| Profit ($M) | 11.45B | 13.31B | 15.58B | 18.35B | 21.71B | 25.74B | 30.51B | 36.03B | 42.36B | 49.45B | 57.21B |
| Margin | 13.3% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 15.6% | 16.3% | 17.0% | 17.5% | 18.1% | 18.5% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| Rev growth YoY | — | 9.7% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 13.9% |
| Illustrative price ($) | 199 | 171 | 200 | 236 | 279 | 331 | 392 | 463 | 545 | 636 | 736 |
* Projected years. Amber price row is P/E × model EPS — not a market quote or target.
How we conclude the prediction
Under the base scenario (selected services: Vehicle, Robotaxi, Solar, Megapack, Semi truck, Optimus), modeled consolidated revenue moves from $86.1B in 2025 to $297.7B in 2035, with modeled profit $57.2B and illustrative price path ending near $736.
- 1. Start from base year 2025 segment levels (volume, ASP, margin) in the assumptions table.
- 2. For each of 10 forward years, grow volume and ASP by the scenario-adjusted rates; step margin by delta and clamp to floor/ceiling.
- 3. Revenue ($M) = volume × ASP / scale; Profit ($M) = revenue × margin — per service, every year.
- 4. Consolidated revenue/profit = sum of selected services; consolidated margin = profit ÷ revenue.
- 5. Illustrative price = (consolidated profit ÷ shares) × P/E multiple (45× on 3500M shares) — labeled scenario, not a target.
- 6. Scenario "base" multiplies each service's volume growth rates by its scenarioVolumeGrowthMult.